Thinking about the Jury

[Hanto]

As I've argued elsewhere...

I think people (hamsters and their watchers) panic too early and too much about jury votes. If there's one place where I give hamsters respect, it's their jury votes. Somehow all the anger and revenge seems to seep away when it's finally judgment day. In BB7, Howie (who people would have expected to hold a grudge against Boogie, and deservedly so) votes for Boogie. BB8 Jen voted for Dick... Point is, people award the best player - and that usually is the most cutthroat and savvy, not the suck up.

That assumption underlies my upcoming analysis. Keep it in mind.

- Renny beats everyone in the final two. (That's why she's being evicted this week).
- Dan beats everyone except Renny in the final two. (His cutthroat gameplay will be awarded even over Memphis - both Michelle and Ollie mentioned, independently, in Housecalls that Memphis had told them he was throwing HOH competitions. That and his multitude of final two deals should break any perceived tie with Dan.)
- Memphis beats Keesha and Jerry. (Memphis vs. Keesha is a tough one and deserves some more thought. I'm just going on gut - and perhaps the latent sexism of BB the last few years. Cutthroat man = good game play. Cutthroat woman = bitch.)
- Keesha beats Jerry. (Despite the sexism just mentioned, sympathy from viewers, pride from other HGs at the 75 year old making it to the end, and, most of all, TPTB's inevitable attempts at manipulation. Keesha should win the day against Jerry. The filth spewed from his mouth won't be forgotten. But what will cost him the prize is that he's both perceived as - and actually is - the most blatant floater since Jun & Alison, and floaters are detested in the game. Though this might be an interesting vote. It's certainly Jerry's best shot.)

If I'm right, then the HG's endgame strategy should become clear. Renny must go, and everyone knows it, including Renny.

Memphis and Keesha should try to screw over Dan at the final four. And then Keesha should try to screw Memphis.

Everyone is going to try to take Jerry to the end, despite what they say.

Jerry would do best to keep Keesha around to the end.

[moviegal]

Great analysis, Hanto. Both Memphis & Dan have already broached the subject of taking Keesha out next week and keeping Jerry (ala the Ryan/Adam strategy of removing the younger, stronger competitor and taking the weaker, older player to the final 3), but have decided to wait and see how things go after the HOH and POV this week. Of course, this could all be contingent upon how big of an asshole Jerry decides to be this week - if he keeps up the way he is, they might just say screw it - I can't take this anymore - hit the road Jack (err Jerry)!

I guarantee that this week's HOH will be physical (since they've had 3 mentals in a row), but it will NOT be endurance, since we're so close to the finals. Since Mr. I Know Everything About BB Because I've Watched Every Season doesn't realize yet that he can't compete in this week's HOH, if it's physical I'd still put my money on Dan or Memphis winning HOH this week. I just hope that Dan doesn't decide to throw it to Memphis since he's never won HOH (or Keesha so that she can make sure that she's prettier than Ashley) - although it appears as of now that Memphis is sincere in keeping his original alliance with Dan for final 2. It's going to be an interesting week.

[Hanto]

Of course, this could all be contingent upon how big of an asshole Jerry decides to be this week - if he keeps up the way he is, they might just say screw it - I can't take this anymore - hit the road Jack (err Jerry)!

Jerry could not possibly ever reach the level of annoying that Sheila did in the last few weeks of BB9, and Adam and Ryan still strung her along. I expect that if given the opportunity, Memphis and Dan will boot Keesha next week.

I'd still put my money on Dan or Memphis winning HOH this week. I just hope that Dan doesn't decide to throw it to Memphis since he's never won HOH

I'm hoping that Keesha wins HOH this week and throws a wrench in the boys' master plan. But I doubt it...

The HOH likely won't be an endurance comp - and the POV will surely be something quasi-physical that involves remembering the order of events (e.g. who won HOH, POV, nominated, etc.); it usually is. Don't forget that this was the week that TPTB massively screwed Sharon out of an HOH win last year with that ridiculous "pre-existing relationship" question about the BEEBIES. I'd be weary of producer shenanigans again - to set up Dan and Jerry for the final.

[storygirl]

I'm hoping Keesha wins the next HoH too!

And puts Dan & Memphis up. ;)

[Crazy]

Sorry girls. If Keesha wins HoH she puts up Dan and Jerry, and lets Memphis vote one of them out.

Yes, she should know that Memphis and Dan are tight because M used the veto, but if history tells, she won't care.

[chewy9028]

I though that I read somewhere (I think it actually was on the main page here) that Renny and Keesha had a conversation about Dan & Memphis being tight and aligned? I would think she would be smart enough to put the two of the up with the information (assuming that I am correct and this convo took place), but then again......I guess in a little over an hour we will know.